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美元预测：关税退款和通货膨胀推动美元兑日元、欧元兑美元、英镑兑美元。关税退款可能会缓解美国企业和家庭的压力，但疲软的增长、较低的储蓄和粘性通货膨胀使美元兑日元、欧元兑美元和英镑兑美元的前景不确定。

US Dollar Forecast: Tariff Refunds and Inflation Drive USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD.Tariff refunds may ease pressure on U.S. businesses and households, but weak growth, lower savings, and sticky inflation keep the U.S. dollar outlook uncertain across USDJPY, EURUSD, and GBPUSD.

卢比兑美元汇率收于95点，为4月2日以来的最佳交易日。周五，卢比兑美元汇率大幅走强，收于95.00，为4月2日以来的最佳表现。这一增长归因于央行干预、伊朗和美国之间据报道的和平协议以及油价下跌。

Rupee closes at 95 against dollar on its best day since April 2.The rupee strengthened significantly on Friday, closing at 95.00 to the dollar, its best performance since April 2. This rise was attributed to central bank intervention, a reported peace deal between Iran and the US, and easing oil prices.

RBI的努力提高了卢比的使用率，但全球采用率仍然有限。尽管印度储备银行努力提高卢比在国际贸易中的使用率，包括特别卢比Vostro账户，但在过去两个财政年度，其用于发票和结算的使用率仅略有增长。这突显了印度在美元主导的全球贸易秩序中实现货币国际化所必须覆盖的重要领域。

RBI efforts boost rupee usage, yet global adoption remains limited.Despite RBI's efforts to boost rupee usage in international trade, including Special Rupee Vostro Accounts, its adoption for invoicing and settlement saw only modest growth over the past two fiscal years. This highlights the significant ground India must cover to internationalize its currency in a dollar-dominated global trading order.

每周底线：达成协议。希望本周达成和平协议，结束伊朗和美国之间的冲突，开放霍尔木兹海峡主导的市场。尽管对可能休战60天的乐观情绪推动油价大幅下跌（相对于上周晚些时候下跌了约9%），但波动性仍然很高。

The Weekly Bottom Line: Makings of a Deal.Hope for a peace deal to end the conflict between Iran and the U.S. and open the Strait of Hormuz dominated markets this week. While optimism around a possible 60-day truce has pushed oil prices sharply lower (down roughly nine percent relative to late last week), volatility remains elevated.